Samenvatting

Linear supply chains for electrical and electronic equipment lead to substantial material losses and environmental impacts, particularly for polyurethane rigid foam used as insulation in refrigerators. This study investigates the systemic conditions that shape the transition towards circular supply chains for this material in three European regions at different stages of circular economy maturity: Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland. We conducted 27 semi-structured interviews with experts from policy, industry, and academia and analysed the results using fuzzy cognitive mapping, a method that represents stakeholder knowledge as a weighted causal network. Eighteen key variables across policy, economic, technological, and societal domains were identified and modelled for each region. Static network indicators were combined with dynamic simulations of steady states to assess which conditions are most influential and most sensitive. Across all three regions, policy-related factors—particularly clear and standardized legal regulations, governmental subsidies, and other policy incentives—emerge as the most influential drivers of circular supply chains. Polyurethane waste feedstock availability is consistently the most central and sensitive condition, determining whether circular solutions are viable in practice. Dynamic simulations further highlight the long-run importance of stakeholder cooperation and company engagement, especially in less mature environments. These findings show that effective circular supply chains for polyurethane rigid foam require region-specific policy mixes that jointly address regulatory design, material flows, and stakeholder behavior. Overall, the study provides a systems-based foundation for designing targeted interventions to support circular polyurethane value chains in Europe.